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What Iran stands to lose after Maduro's downfall

Hol

Well-known
As Venezuela enters a volatile phase following Nicolas Maduro’s capture by US forces over the weekend, Iran’s strategic investments in the country’s oil refining sector are facing a sudden and uncertain reckoning.

For more than a decade, these ventures—framed as anti-imperialist cooperation between two heavily sanctioned states—served political purposes rather than a commercial ones.

They were designed to circumvent US sanctions, monetize Venezuela’s vast but increasingly stranded crude reserves and provide mutual economic lifelines. Their durability depended on the survival of aligned governments in Tehran and Caracas.

With the interim government in Caracas signaling openness to cooperation with the United States, Iran’s refinery projects risk shifting from sheltered geopolitical instruments into exposed financial and legal liabilities.

The fallout threatens not only Tehran’s assets in Venezuela but also the broader sanctions-evasion model it has refined across multiple theaters.

 
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