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Not Just Oil - Fertilizer Shock Could Be Coming And Raise Global Food Prices

If commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for months, we will witness a global food crisis on a scale that many experts would have once considered to be unthinkable. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been much written about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the price of oil to rise, has caused the price of natural gas to soar to insane levels and has caused the average price of diesel in the United States to jump above five dollars a gallon. But I think that the bigger story is what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for global food supplies.

Normally, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer and approximately one-half of all globally-traded sulfur passes through the Strait of Hormuz...

Another world crisis sparked by the war in Iran may also be in the offing. That's because the region's oil and gas production has made it one of the world's leading exporters of nitrogen fertilizers, which are indispensable to the global food system. To produce the chemicals used to grow much of the planet's crops, natural gas is broken down to extract hydrogen, which is combined with nitrogen to make ammonia, and then mixed with carbon dioxide to make urea. All told, nearly a third of the global trade for nitrogen fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while almost half of the world's sulfur, essential in producing phosphate fertilizers, also travels through the corridor.
Even if deescalation occurs, the conflict has likely locked in a food price hike in the coming months. The longer the war continues, the greater the shock to food security as energy and fertiliser prices remain elevated.

 
If commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for months, we will witness a global food crisis on a scale that many experts would have once considered to be unthinkable. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been much written about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the price of oil to rise, has caused the price of natural gas to soar to insane levels and has caused the average price of diesel in the United States to jump above five dollars a gallon. But I think that the bigger story is what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for global food supplies.

Normally, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer and approximately one-half of all globally-traded sulfur passes through the Strait of Hormuz...

Another world crisis sparked by the war in Iran may also be in the offing. That's because the region's oil and gas production has made it one of the world's leading exporters of nitrogen fertilizers, which are indispensable to the global food system. To produce the chemicals used to grow much of the planet's crops, natural gas is broken down to extract hydrogen, which is combined with nitrogen to make ammonia, and then mixed with carbon dioxide to make urea. All told, nearly a third of the global trade for nitrogen fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while almost half of the world's sulfur, essential in producing phosphate fertilizers, also travels through the corridor.
Even if deescalation occurs, the conflict has likely locked in a food price hike in the coming months. The longer the war continues, the greater the shock to food security as energy and fertiliser prices remain elevated.

Do Not Worry

25 “Therefore I say to you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or what you will drink; nor about your body, what you will put on. Is not life more than food and the body more than clothing?
26 Look at the birds of the air, for they neither sow nor reap nor gather into barns; yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not of more value than they?
27 Which of you by worrying can add one cubit to his stature?

28 “So why do you worry about clothing? Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin;
29 and yet I say to you that even Solomon in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these.
30 Now if God so clothes the grass of the field, which today is, and tomorrow is thrown into the oven, will He not much more clothe you, O you of little faith?

31“Therefore do not worry, saying, ‘What shall we eat?’ or ‘What shall we drink?’ or ‘What shall we wear?’
32 For after all these things the Gentiles seek. For your heavenly Father knows that you need all these things.
33 But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness, and all these things shall be added to you. 34 Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble."
Matthew 6:25-34

"And my God shall supply all your need according to His riches in glory by Christ Jesus"
Philippians 4:19

And we know that all things work together for good to those who love God, to those who are the called according to His purpose.
Romans 8:28
 
Thanks Rose for this. Hopefully this could have the affect of like an antibiotic. Like, allowing this sort of thing to play out now (as apposed to Iran having a nuclear arsenal and control of the Straight of H). I know i think a bit differently than the average prophecy watcher, but this also kind of reminds me of 2020. Where the fork in the road was a) shut down civilization for incredibly long stretches of time, or b) allow big pharma to make a killing unjustly so that markets could open back up. It would have seemed a moment in time that brought us to the necessities of choice among two evils. For it would have seem to have been the point we had been brought to.

Whereas in this case, its certainly something we did not have a fork in the road for at least on the surface. But in reality it might have been that Iran was actually a genuine threat in near term future concerning the West. Its not hard to imagine that country after decades of flexing pure hatred toward America might have been quite a bit far along the road to extreme danger with them. But hopefully, dealing with the Straight of H now will work itself out best in contrast to what it could have been later.

As for your encouraging verses posted, Amen. The way i tend to see these things is more like: during the age of grace we will experience some tensions leading to a tribulation era. But i personally believe the age of grace is more likely a time of waving good bye to the good ol days. But in so doing, perhaps an extraordinary high dose of remembering the good ol days before the entire floor drops out. And although things like famines are a part of birth pangs, as it would seem the 3rd seal during the tribulation is a massive famine. Something the church thankfully will never see, amen. But yeah, in general things could get rough for a time. :pray:
 
Thanks Rose for this. Hopefully this could have the affect of like an antibiotic. Like, allowing this sort of thing to play out now (as apposed to Iran having a nuclear arsenal and control of the Straight of H). I know i think a bit differently than the average prophecy watcher, but this also kind of reminds me of 2020. Where the fork in the road was a) shut down civilization for incredibly long stretches of time, or b) allow big pharma to make a killing unjustly so that markets could open back up. It would have seemed a moment in time that brought us to the necessities of choice among two evils. For it would have seem to have been the point we had been brought to.

Whereas in this case, its certainly something we did not have a fork in the road for at least on the surface. But in reality it might have been that Iran was actually a genuine threat in near term future concerning the West. Its not hard to imagine that country after decades of flexing pure hatred toward America might have been quite a bit far along the road to extreme danger with them. But hopefully, dealing with the Straight of H now will work itself out best in contrast to what it could have been later.

As for your encouraging verses posted, Amen. The way i tend to see these things is more like: during the age of grace we will experience some tensions leading to a tribulation era. But i personally believe the age of grace is more likely a time of waving good bye to the good ol days. But in so doing, perhaps an extraordinary high dose of remembering the good ol days before the entire floor drops out. And although things like famines are a part of birth pangs, as it would seem the 3rd seal during the tribulation is a massive famine. Something the church thankfully will never see, amen. But yeah, in general things could get rough for a time. :pray:
I like to rely on God's promises in His Word that are effective "Now". Meaning, they dont have to apply only to the Tribulation, the rider on the black horse, or any News Headline warning of any coming global crisis.
The Lord tells us "Dont Worry", without assigning it to any specific time or event that would cause anyone to worry. The quoted verses apply to possible domino effects from current events in the Middle East, they apply to any unexpected life changing event in our personal lives, they apply at any time, and to not worry but Trust in The Lord should apply Now, for all of us to have His Peace that He provides. 😊
 
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