Almost Heaven
Well-known
A mega-deal in the making
Trump is pushing for a "mega-deal" – a grand agreement to resolve several regional disputes and promote international cooperation. The Saudis are seeking a defense pact and plan to announce a $600 billion investment in the US. This would serve as the framework for the upcoming talks. The war in Gaza has become an obstacle to realizing this vision. While Trump views Hamas as the primary obstacle and seeks to end the conflict, he will not hesitate to proceed with the Saudi plans even without Israel's involvement if the war does not end soon.Israel's strategic advantage
The Saudis, who supported the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, had been waiting for their own opening. Their condition was a diplomatic horizon for two-state negotiations. In talks with the Americans, they were willing to settle for an expanded Palestinian autonomy and were openly critical of the Palestinian Authority's corruption and inefficiency.
The drive for normalization was rooted in security. Israel had demonstrated its capabilities against Iran – the most tangible threat to Saudi Arabia. The 2015 nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration and European countries with Iran convinced Riyadh that Israel was its only reliable partner.
The US's lack of response during Trump's first term to the 2019 Iranian-backed Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities further aligned Riyadh with Jerusalem. Secret talks were held, including a visit by Netanyahu and then-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen to the planned Saudi city of Neom in November 2020, where they met directly with bin Salman.
In 2023, following the establishment of Netanyahu's current government, the Saudis sought assurance that Israel still backed the previous understandings and was ready for normalization. Israel responded affirmatively, and negotiations were set to conclude within months. The war, however, halted the process – perhaps intentionally.
The Saudi shift
The war placed Saudi Arabia in a delicate position due to intense Arab criticism over the toll on Gaza. The Saudis remained restrained for a long time, but in November, the crown prince signaled a shift. Bin Salman accused Israel of committing "genocide" in Gaza – an unusually harsh term for him – and demanded an end to the war and the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
During normalization talks, the Americans proposed building a civilian nuclear facility in Saudi Arabia that would be operated, managed and secured exclusively by Americans. But in light of Wright's announcement, it now appears the issue is advancing independently of Israel's position – a departure from past protocol.
Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia is also engaging with Iran to try to neutralize the threat from Tehran. It has publicly praised the opening of Iran-US negotiations in Oman and expressed hope for their success.
Saudi Arabia and US on Israel-bypassing track
The Saudi crown prince and the US president are expected to reach agreements on issues critical to Israel – including nuclear cooperation. According to
