So what can we say this morning about the state of the negotiations?
Contrary to various reports throughout the day, the deal is not yet finalized. However, there is genuine optimism in Israel that an agreement could be reached in the near future. A political source commented last night: "We are in advanced stages but not yet at the final stages - the Hamas leadership in Gaza has not yet responded to the outline, and the list of hostages has not yet been received."
The outline, which is relatively detailed, was negotiated with the Hamas leadership in Qatar and discusses the release of 33 humanitarian hostages in the first phase of the deal. This definition includes all women, both civilian and military, children, men over the age of 50, men with serious injuries or medical conditions, as well as Abra Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who were kidnapped before the war.
Hamas has shown significant flexibility regarding the number of hostages - initially demanding about 12, gradually increasing to 15 and then 18, and now agreeing to a larger number, with Israel insisting on 33. None of the abductees on this list are defined as casualties, though there are serious concerns about the fate of several. However, it is estimated that most, possibly even the vast majority, are still alive.
According to the outline, the release of the abductees in the first phase will occur in stages over a six-week ceasefire, beginning 48 hours after the deal is signed with the release of non-military abductees. In exchange, Israel will release over a thousand terrorists, including at least 200 murderers - the final numbers will depend on the number of abductees released.
Serious murderers and terrorists will not be released into Judea and Samaria but rather into the Gaza Strip or a third country like Algeria or Qatar. After 16 days from the start of the first phase's implementation, detailed negotiations for the second phase, which should include the release of the remaining hostages, will commence. This implies no prior Israeli commitment to end the war (in my opinion, the deal could falter on this point). As I understand it, Israel even sought an American commitment to resume fighting if necessary, but Jerusalem has not approved this.
A political source notes that, unlike past instances where Hamas engaged in "facade negotiations," the current negotiations seem authentic. According to him, Hamas's flexibility stems from various pressures: the elimination of Sinwar, intense military pressure in northern Gaza, fear of an IDF maneuver in Gaza City, Trump's threats to "bring hell" to Gaza (which might also affect humanitarian aid), and the weakening of the Iranian axis.
The source further stresses that while the first phase focuses on humanitarian hostages, the negotiations encompass all hostages, and Israel will not fully withdraw from Gaza until the last one is released. To this end, Israel will maintain some strategic assets - both geographical and key terrorist figures - at this negotiation stage.
The IDF will keep a presence around the Gaza Strip's perimeter and a minimal presence along the Philadelphi corridor. As the political source stated, "Israel will not fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip until the last hostage is released."
Regarding the return of Gazans to northern Gaza, this will be facilitated through corridors on the Netzarim axis. Security checks will not be conducted by the IDF but by a neutral entity under Israeli supervision. People of all ages, including those of combat age, will be allowed back. However, the issue of numerous weapon caches north of the Netzarim axis, which could rearm returning, unarmed terrorists, remains unresolved.
It is also noteworthy that Israel feels pressured by Trump's administration to reach a deal before his inauguration. According to a source involved in the talks, "Trump is eager to finalize a deal even before his inauguration, translating into pressure on Israel."
So what can we say this morning about the state of the negotiations? Contrary to various reports throughout the day, the deal is not yet finalized. However, there is genuine optimism in Israel that an agreement could be reached in the near future. A political source commented last night: "We...
t.me
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