Almost Heaven
Well-known
The Trump administration is once again engaging with the Iranian regime, this time in Oman, to encourage it to end its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs the way Libya's late leader Muammar Ghaddafi did. As US President Donald J. Trump transparently put it: "I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them."
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has called for direct talks with Iran, in the apparent belief that a fresh deal -- tougher, broader and more binding than the Obama administration's 2105 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- could prevent Iran from an imminent nuclear weapons breakout.
Unfortunately, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never been thrillingly honest about its nuclear ambitions, although, in fairness, an Iranian "senior aid" has already let it be known that the regime might "expel UN inspectors if the threat persists" and transfer "stocks of enriched uranium to secret locations."
Iran's acceptance of talks is a tactic, not a transformation. Cornered by growing U.S. and Israeli threats, as well as unprecedented isolation, the mullahs seem, as always, to be seeking to buy time and ease the pressure. Tehran only negotiates when it is desperate.
The regime's back is now against the wall.
Tehran understands full well that refusing to talk, especially with a Trump administration that has shown a willingness to escalate militarily, could invite devastating consequences. That is why the regime is willing to engage -- out of fear of military strikes, fear of economic collapse and fear of regime change.
Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself at one of the most vulnerable points in its 45-year history. In December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria -- Tehran's most crucial Arab ally -- collapsed after years of civil war and sustained Israeli strikes. On top of that, Iran's regional proxies -- from the Houthis in Yemen to Hamas and Hezbollah -- have been severely degraded thanks to a reinvigorated Israeli military campaign. Tehran's hold over the region has been weakening. Internally, the economy is near collapse. The regime is reeling. Under these conditions, who would refuse to talk? Especially when the alternative is an Israeli-American air campaign targeting one's nuclear facilities?
Negotiations for the mullahs are simply a sign of strategic necessity. The regime needs breathing room -- and, most importantly, it needs to preserve what it sees as its ultimate insurance policy: a nuclear arsenal.
Read More...https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21546/iran-will-not-abandon-nuclear-program
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has called for direct talks with Iran, in the apparent belief that a fresh deal -- tougher, broader and more binding than the Obama administration's 2105 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- could prevent Iran from an imminent nuclear weapons breakout.
Unfortunately, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never been thrillingly honest about its nuclear ambitions, although, in fairness, an Iranian "senior aid" has already let it be known that the regime might "expel UN inspectors if the threat persists" and transfer "stocks of enriched uranium to secret locations."
Iran's acceptance of talks is a tactic, not a transformation. Cornered by growing U.S. and Israeli threats, as well as unprecedented isolation, the mullahs seem, as always, to be seeking to buy time and ease the pressure. Tehran only negotiates when it is desperate.
The regime's back is now against the wall.
Tehran understands full well that refusing to talk, especially with a Trump administration that has shown a willingness to escalate militarily, could invite devastating consequences. That is why the regime is willing to engage -- out of fear of military strikes, fear of economic collapse and fear of regime change.
Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself at one of the most vulnerable points in its 45-year history. In December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria -- Tehran's most crucial Arab ally -- collapsed after years of civil war and sustained Israeli strikes. On top of that, Iran's regional proxies -- from the Houthis in Yemen to Hamas and Hezbollah -- have been severely degraded thanks to a reinvigorated Israeli military campaign. Tehran's hold over the region has been weakening. Internally, the economy is near collapse. The regime is reeling. Under these conditions, who would refuse to talk? Especially when the alternative is an Israeli-American air campaign targeting one's nuclear facilities?
Negotiations for the mullahs are simply a sign of strategic necessity. The regime needs breathing room -- and, most importantly, it needs to preserve what it sees as its ultimate insurance policy: a nuclear arsenal.
Read More...https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21546/iran-will-not-abandon-nuclear-program
